Fundament and Application
QIN Xueyi, LI Zhaoxia, WANG Jidong, ZHANG Ying, LIAO Lijuan, QIU Mingying, YI Juan, ZHU Zhirong, TU Chaoyong, WANG Shigong
Objective To understand the impact of heat wave-ozone successive compound events on mortality risk and disease burden among residents in Chengdu. Methods This study adopted a two-stage research framework consisting of a modeling period and an extrapolation period. An exposure-response relationship model was constructed by using daily meteorological data,ozone concentration data and mortality data(including all-cause mortality,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality and respiratory mortality) in 2010-2016. Assuming population susceptibility remained stable,the model was extrapolated to the period 2017-2023 to evaluate the changing trend of mortality burden attributable to long-term successive compound events. Extreme events and successive compound events were defined based on percentiles of temperature under the historical climate state(T1,T2,T3) and the daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration(O1,O2). The distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM) and generalized linear model(GLM) were employed to analyze the mortality risk and synergistic effects,and to estimate the number of attributable deaths. Results The mortality risk of compound events was significantly higher than that of single events,and a synergistic effect was observed(RERI>0),with the most prominent synergistic effect on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. Extrapolation results showed that the number of days with compound events in Chengdu increased significantly from 2010 to 2023,reaching 29 days in 2022. The estimated number of attributable deaths from compound events in 2017-2023(2 770) increased by approximately 5.35-fold compared with that in 2010-2016(436),indicating a sharp increase in health burden. Conclusion Successive compound exposure to heatwaves and ozone in Chengdu may produce a significant synergistic amplification effect,with health hazards markedly greater than exposure to either single factor alone. Both the frequency of compound events and the associated mortality burden exhibited a rapid growth trend from 2010 to 2023.